Two incumbent Democrats face obstacles in attempts to win new terms in Congress.
ANDREW M. SEDER
Published: March 10, 2010 by The Times Leader
A Washington, D.C.-based political newsletter that analyzes congressional races classifies both the 10th and 11th U.S. House districts in Pennsylvania as “leans Democrat.” But the men who hold those seats, Chris Carney and Paul E. Kanjorski, aren’t taking anything for granted.
And they shouldn’t, said David Wasserman, the House editor for The Cook Political Report.
“At this point in time we see both races as competitive,” said Wasserman.
Carney, 51, of Dimock Township, will seek a third term in office without a Democratic challenger in the May primary. According to the nominating petitions filed in Harrisburg by Tuesday’s 5 p.m. deadline, three Republicans will have their names on the ballot: Snyder County Commissioner Malcolm Derk, 27, of Freeburg, Lehman Township consultant Dave Madeira, 43, and former U.S. attorney Tom Marino, 57, of Lycoming Township, are vying for the GOP nod.
Wasserman said the results of the May 18 primary “will tell us a lot about Carney’s future.”
“Are they (the Republicans) really excited by one candidate or will it be a close race (like in 2008 when Chris Hackett edged by Dan Meuser by less than 3,000 votes in the Republican primary)?” he asked. He said if the party lines up behind one candidate, it could spell trouble for Carney.
“If one candidate is able to break out of the primary, then I would say ‘watch out’ if I were Chris Carney,” Wasserman said. If it’s close, Carney might be able to breathe a little easier, he added.
Chris Borick, a political science professor and political pollster who teaches at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, said that Carney should be worried, since the Republican Party is surging and registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in his district.
Kanjorski’s situation is a little different than Carney’s because he’ll be squaring off in the primary for the first time in years. If he survives, he’ll have a potential third date with Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, whom he defeated two previous times, including a narrow win in 2008.
Borick said Barletta is better positioned this year to defeat Kanjorski than the previous two attempts.
“The political winds are at Barletta’s back this time instead of in his face,” Borick said.
Barletta must first defeat hedge fund manager Chris Paige, 38, of Sky Top.
Wasserman said, “I can’t see Kanjorski losing in the Democratic primary.” Kanjorski, 72, of Nanticoke, squares off against Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien, 36, of Moosic, in that race.
But even a win against O’Brien could be costly for Kanjorski as he’ll have to spend a chunk of his campaign war chest, instead of filling it up in preparation for the general election.
Ed Mitchell, Kanjorski’s campaign spokesman, said O’Brien is the first challenger of any significance the congressman has faced in a primary since he was seated in 1985. And he said he hoped that streak would have continued.
“We prefer not to have a primary opponent,” Mitchell said. “You usually don’t have a challenger when you’re an incumbent, but Mr. O’Brien is a very ambitious, opportunistic man.”
O’Brien said the Kanjorski campaign “has short memories” and pointed out that Kanjorski took office by defeating incumbent House member, and fellow Democrat, Frank Harrison in 1984.
He said if it was OK then, it should be OK now.
“People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones,” O’Brien said.
Addressing Wasserman’s forecast on the outcome of the primary, O’Brien said he took no credence in that publication’s predictions.
“They’re in Washington, D.C., and I’m knocking on doors in the district. The people of the 11th District will make the decision on May 18, not The Cook Political Report on March 9.”
Marino, who is one of three Republicans looking for the chance to unseat Carney, has pledged to keep the campaign positive and focused on issues.
Jason Fitzgerald, Marino’s spokesman, said he’s aware of the mudslinging that marred the Hackett/Meuser campaign two years ago and hoped the three candidates this year saw what the results were.
Borick said a positive primary election is the right course to take this year and the goal shouldn’t be hurting your opponent but pointing out why you’re the person to carry the flag for your party against Carney.
Madeira also said he sees the contested primary as a way to get his platform out there.
“From my perspective, the primary is an audition for the general election, and I’m making the case to Republican voters that, given Carney’s record of personal attacks on his opponents and his inability to defend himself on the issues, my background and experience, combined with my knowledge of his record and ability to articulate it, make me best suited to take him on in the fall.”
That record is something Carney defended as neither Republican nor Democrat but 10th District. Carney has had to walk a fine line to remain in office, usually with the votes of district Republicans and independent voters, which Borick said will be needed for Carney to be successful in November.
“I am profoundly grateful for all of the support from Democrats, Republicans and independents throughout the district,” Carney said.
